The Morning Report

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Agreement becoming a real cliffhanger

The Democrats and Republicans have agreed to meet on Sunday in order to try and thrash out a deal on the fiscal cliff issue. We
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US may fall off fiscal cliff

Democratic leader Harry Reid said the US may fall off the fiscal cliff because the Republicans won’t negotiate a deal that would avert a combined
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Kiwi stumbles at cliff edge

The NZ dollar dropped sharply over the last few days, as growing concern about the US going over the fiscal cliff, saw a wave of
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Kiwi Drops on Weak Growth Data

The NZ economy grew by just 0.2% in the third quarter and just 2.0% for the year ending September 30th. The drop in annual growth
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Kiwi slides on growth concerns

The NZ dollar has lost ground across the board overnight, as concerns about the country’s rate of growth weigh on the Kiwi. Yesterday saw the
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NZ Government Cuts growth forecast

The NZ Government announced their half year economic update yesterday and cut their growth forecast for the next three years by -0.50%. They are still
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Yen weakens after election, NZDJPY at 4 year high

The Japanese Yen dropped nearly 1 cent vs. the US dollar after the weekend’s election result saw the opposition LDP party win by a huge
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Final week for cliff talks

The US goes into the final week of ‘Fiscal Cliff’ negotiations, with the two sides inching closer to an agreement, but no sign yet of
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Kiwi remains strong despite cliff uncertainty

The Kiwi held onto most of yesterday’s early gains overnight to be around the .8400 vs. the USD this morning, whilst it also broke back
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Kiwi jumps higher after Fed meeting

The Kiwi jumped up over .8400 against the USD this morning, after the US Federal Reserve confirmed market expectations of an extra USD45 billion a
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Markets rise on thawing fiscal cliff talks

Financial markets all made gains overnight on signs of a thaw in the talks between US President Barrack Obama and opposition leader John Boehmer. It
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One week to go on US fiscal cliff talks

Financial markets remained stuck around recent levels just a week out from the deadline for politicians to reach an agreement on the US fiscal cliff.
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More US jobs moves focus onto the Fed

The US added 146,000 jobs in November which saw the unemployment rate drop two notches to 7.7%. This stronger than expected result, will help move
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Kiwi Higher After RBNZ

The Kiwi dollar has surged higher after the RBNZ left interest rates unchanged yesterday. The markets have focused on the Reserve Banks concerns about the
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RBNZ Holds – Worries about cost of rebuild

New RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler has left the OCR unchanged at 2.50% and indicated that there will be no change through 2013. Whilst acknowledging the
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More Rate Cuts for Australia?

The Reserve Bank of Australia cut the official cash rate yesterday as had been widely anticipated. The guessing game of will more rate cuts be
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RBA Rate Cut, Greek Debt Buyback

Weak data out of Australia yesterday reinforced the markets view that the RBA will cut the official cash rate this afternoon. Retail sales were flat,
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RBA, RBNZ and Cliff Talks Stall

Political tensions are starting to rise in the US with Republican leader John Boehner saying that “no substantial progress has yet been made on the
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“No substantial progress on Cliff”

Political tensions are starting to rise in the US with Republican leader John Boehner saying that “no substantial progress has yet been made on the
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Obama presses Republicans for a deal, more money for Greece?

US President Barrack Obama used his election victory as a key reference when he spoke to the media earlier this morning. He said that a
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NZ Trade deficit Widens, Greece finally gets its money

The NZ trade deficit widened in October as an on-going slide in exports dragged the trade balance further into the red. Whilst the decline is
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Canadian to Run Bank of England

In a surprise move the current head of the bank of Canada has been appointed as the new head of the Bank of England. Mark
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Markets Rise on fiscal cliff optimism

Financial markets have posted strong gains on growing optimism that a deal will be struck between the ruling US democrats and the opposition Republicans when
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China expands, Europe contracts

Data out yesterday, showed a rebound in Chinese manufacturing output for November, whilst both manufacturing and services continued to contract across Europe. The contrasting fortunes
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Card spending & lower milk prices drag Kiwi down

The NZ dollar dropped nearly a cent vs. the USD since late yesterday as a combination of weak card spending and falling Fonterra milk auction
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France Downgraded, Bernanke Speaks

No sooner had we written that Europe might drop out of the headlines when Moody’s the credit rating agency came out and downgraded France’s credit
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Euro gains on Greek aid

The Euro continued its mini recovery overnight on news that Eurozone officials are likely to agree to Greece’s next tranche of financial aid at this
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Optimism rises over fiscal cliff

Financial markets got a slight boost on Friday night after positive comments from the first meeting between US President Barrack Obama and senior Republican John
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Yen Falls on Unlimited Call, is the RBA Intervening?

The Japanese Yen fell sharply overnight after calls from the leading opposition party for unlimited intervention. Shinzo Abe, head of the Liberal Democratic Party said
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Kiwi drops as weak retail sales hike chance of rate cut

The run of weak economic data for New Zealand continued yesterday, with retail sales for the third quarter dropping by 0.4% against expectations for a
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Greece gets two more years, but who will pay?

Financial markets breathed a collective sigh of relief overnight, after European leaders decided to give Greece two more years to try and shrink their budget
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More money for Greece? More printing from the UK?

Currency markets have been relatively quiet overnight with the familiar themes continuing to dominate the headlines. In Europe, the main focus was on the news
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Fiscal Cliff continues to hang over markets

The Fiscal Cliff looms large on the horizon this week, as the uncertainty of how it will be resolved weighed heavily on the markets late
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Kiwi Tumbles on Shock Unemployment Result

The Kiwi Dollar slumped more than a cent yesterday vs the USD after much weaker than expected unemployment data. The jobless rate rose to 7.3%
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Markets move on to ‘fiscal cliff’

US President Barrack Obama was re-elected yesterday, but the markets quickly moved onto the next big challenge for the US: the ‘fiscal cliff’. As it
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Markets Rally on US Polls

As America went to the Polls last night US financial markets rose after the latest opinion Polls suggested that incumbent US president Barrack Obama would
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Greece concerns weigh on Euro; US elections

The Euro has moved below 1.28 against the US dollar for the first time in nearly 2 months as resistance to further austerity measures threaten
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US dollar gains on strong employment data

Better than expected jobs numbers from the US gave the markets a lift on Friday, as the world’s largest economy continues to show signs of
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Strong data pushes currencies higher

There was a flurry of positive data out from the US last night, following on from yesterday’s Chinese manufacturing which returned to expansion. We had
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Building permits surge on both sides of the Tasman

New Zealand’s and Australia’s building approvals leapt in September, in a sign that the post-earthquake rebuild is underway, whilst Aussies are taking advantage of the
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BOJ disappoints but Euro lifted

The BOJ lived up to expectations and disappointed the markets once again, seeing the JPY immediately strengthen. The Euro was given a boost overnight as
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Sandy storms the markets

Hurricane Sandy is expected to hit the East Coast of the US today and in anticipation, the NYSE and Nasdaq stock exchanges have been closed
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US receives GDP boost; RBNZ Governor speaks

The US received another dose of good data, as economic growth came in stronger than forecast. The news gave a late boost to the markets
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NZD rallies after RBNZ not so dovish

The Kiwi rallied after yesterday’s RBNZ’s meeting as the new governor left the interest rates unchanged, whilst the Aussie also climbed after Australia’s surprising boost
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Kiwi rises on RBNZ outlook

The new Reserve Bank Governor led his first policy meeting leaving the cash rate on hold. There was some positive news out of Australia and
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Risk off as earnings disappoint

The US dollar and Japanese Yen strengthened as companies’ earnings disappointed shifting investors back to regarded safe havens. With the lack of data out, attention
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JPY continues to fall in an otherwise quiet day

The Japanese Yen fell against the US dollar for an 8th consecutive day as the nation’s exports dropped sharply, which should now galvanise policy makers
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Google earnings spook markets

Google’s unintentional early release of its earnings has seen the fickle markets react strongly to their disappointing numbers with the share price falling 10% as
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Kiwi & Aussie soar on outstanding US data

The Kiwi is over a cent higher, whilst the Aussie is up by a cent and a half as US housing numbers continued to surpass
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Kiwi slides on low inflation

The Kiwi fell against all major counterparts bar the JPY which held steady, as data showed inflation slowed more than expected, fuelling speculation of a
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Kiwi & Aussie lifted by more positive US data

The two main pacific currencies were given a boost overnight as more positive data was posted in the US. The AUD and NZD were both
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NZD drifts lower

The Kiwi starts the week back below .8200 vs. the USD as money continues to flow back to Europe, weighing on the NZD. In the
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Markets Stall despite more good data from the USA

Currency markets have stalled overnight despite more good news on the US economic front. Initial jobless claims dropped to their lowest level since 2008 as
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Kiwi Drops Back vs.Aussie

The NZ Dollar dropped back sharply vs. the Aussie Dollar yesterday as a rise in Iron Ore prices supported the Aussie Dollar and NZ Government
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Risk off sentiment weighs on NZD & AUD

Market sentiment is waning and investors are pulling towards the ‘safer’ currencies over renewed growth fears in the Eurozone. Despite Angela Merkel’s endorsing visit to
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Focus on Europe with US & Japan holidays

In what is a quiet start to the week due to the Columbus Day bank holiday in the US and Health Sports Day bank holiday
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Sharp fall in US unemployment rate raises doubts over QE3

The unemployment rate fell sharply on Friday night, dropping to 7.8% from 8.1% previously. The US Bureau of Statistics also revised upwards the jobs added
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Draghi: ECB ready to purchase

The Euro was boosted after the ECB Chief said that the central bank was ready to purchase government bonds as soon as the necessary conditions
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Aussie & Kiwi fall after weak data

The AUD and NZD are both down over a cent vs. the USD this morning after weak trade data out from Australia yesterday saw both
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RBA cuts cash rate

The Reserve Bank of Australia cut their benchmark interest rate yesterday, from 3.5% to 3.25%. Many expected the rate to remain unchanged, but given the
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Spain on the right track; Fed reveals targets

The Euro was the biggest mover overnight as investors reacted positively to Spain’s budget details, whilst one of the major rating agencies also supported the
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Attention turns to RBA

Friday night saw mixed data out of the US, as consumer spending was tempered by the increase in petrol and food prices in August. It
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AUD & NZD higher on Chinese whispers

The dollars of Australia and New Zealand moved higher overnight as speculation increased that China may act to spur growth and bolster the equities market,
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Priced in optimism continues to diminish

The Euro has weakened for a 7th consecutive day as the initial advance in currencies after the actions of central banks starts to ease off.
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US data beats optimistic forecasts

The US has continued to enjoy positive data, as the latest issuance of consumer confidence and house prices have shown. Both numbers beat even the
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Euro slipping back; Chances of RBA rate cut rise

There is a new ‘risk off’ sentiment running through the markets once again, as data out of Europe shows business confidence is waning in the
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Investors take stock after volatile month

The markets seemed to have quietened down as investors account for their positions as the 3rd quarter draws to a close this week. In the
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NZ’s positive growth surprise

The Kiwi was given an unexpected leg up as New Zealand’s economic growth slowed less than expected in the last quarter. US employment data continues
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BOJ prints more Yen

The Bank of Japan, as expected, eased monetary policy to try and alleviate some of the pressure on their currency, but after the initial knee
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Euro eases back, focus on Japan

The Euro weakened last night as data compiled in Germany showed their economic growth will slow further and market expectations remained low. There are renewed
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BOJ next off the QE line?

With the impending Bank of Japan meeting today and tomorrow, all eyes are switching from Europe and the US to Asia. It is looking increasingly
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Markets calm after big week

Investors are taking stock of a significant week in the Euro debt crisis and the US Federal Reserve’s insistent battle against the unemployment rate. In
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QE3 – A step too far?

Well, the market got what it wanted from US Federal Reserve Chief Ben Bernanke, who announced a third round of Quantitative Easing. QE3 will see
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Investors continue QE frenzy

The anticipation has reached fever pitch as the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), start their 2 day meeting tonight. The world’s reserve currency continues
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Markets rise further ahead of Fed on Friday

Financial markets have posted another night of strong gains ahead of Friday morning’s Federal Reserve announcement. It seems the closer we get to the event,
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Markets Consolidate ahead of Fed

After last Fridays sharp gains across markets on the back of the US employment data, most currencies, commodities and share indices have consolidated overnight. There
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US unemployment drops but QE3 now likely

Friday night’s US employment data could prove to be a significant point in the Federal Reserve’s decision on the potential next round of Quantitative Easing.
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Super Mario boosts markets

The Euro climbed to a 2 month high against the US dollar, after Super Mario Draghi, the head of the ECB took decisive action towards
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ECB to buy unlimited Sovereign Bonds

The Euro gained the most against its 16 major counterparts after a report revealed that the ECB President was ready to announce purchasing of unlimited
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RBA hold; ECB to buy 2 & 3 year bonds

The Reserve Bank of Australia once again held their cash rate citing mild growth in China and the US, and was satisfied with growth in
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RBA to review cash rate?

With the flurry of negative data out of Australia recently and China too, which is their biggest trade partner, will the Reserve Bank of Australia
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Bernanke open to more easing

The Jackson Hole meeting took place on Friday and Federal Reserve leader Ben Bernanke used his speech to defend his previous policy decisions whilst leaving
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Aussie data stuns markets

Yesterday’s Australian home building approvals number shocked the market as it came in considerably down from the previous months. The leaders of Spain and France
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US data eases talk of Fed stimulus

The US dollar strengthened versus the majority of its 16 major counterparts as the US economy grew more than estimated, whilst pending home sales also
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Kiwi falls after Fonterra cuts payout

The Kiwi eased back half a cent on a market release by Fonterra cutting its payments to farmer’s forecasts as the Euro strengthened against the
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Markets quiet as they wait for news

It has been a quiet 24 hours in the markets with hardly any currency movement, as investors wait for the press conference’s from Europe and
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Bernanke to signal intentions; European leaders optimistic

In what proved to be a busy end to the week, the markets remained in positive territory after the Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke indicated that
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US housing continues rise; China still slowing

Overnight there was mixed news from the US, with housing showing improved numbers, although employment remains the one real thorn in the Fed’s side as
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Housing holds key to the US economic outlook

The FOMC minutes were released last night and they showed that ‘many’ of the policy makers believed that additional monetary accommodation was ‘likely’ unless the
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Euro rises as Spanish yields fall

The Euro appreciated to a six week high against the US dollar as the positive sentiment continues, with Germany easing their position on Greece’s concessions
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Outlook positive for Kiwi households

The outlook for New Zealand in the 2nd half of the year is looking increasingly positive as the ripples from the Eurozone debt crisis ease
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Aussie lower on Treasury comments

The Australian dollar fell against the major currencies after comments made by the Australian Treasury said that the RBA would be able to ease monetary
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US house builds hit 4 year high

Data out in the US last night showed that permits for new homes hit a 4 year high as the positive housing numbers continued. However,
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Dairy prices up 7.8%; More positive data from US

This morning’s Fonterra dairy auctions jumped as dairy prices posted their 3rd biggest gain ever. The positive data flow continued last night as the US
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Healthy data from Europe, US & NZ

On the data front, it has been a positive 24 hours as results came in better than market estimates. The data kicked off yesterday in
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Euro strengthens against the Kiwi

The Euro was given a boost overnight as Italy reached its target in selling 1 year bonds, whilst also helping the shared currency higher was
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Kiwi & Aussie bounce back after knocks

After last week’s softer data, where we saw China’s trade surplus narrow and New Zealand’s unemployment figure edge up to 6.8%, whilst credit card spending
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Mixed news for NZ & AU employment data

Both New Zealand and Australia had updates on their unemployment rates yesterday, with the Kiwi rate marginally higher and Aussie rate lower. China also had
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Euro softens on data and ratings

The Euro eased back overnight against the US dollar, as one of the more peripheral rating agencies reviews the credit rating of Spain, Italy Greece
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Kiwi & Aussie softer as RBA hold

The Reserve Bank of Australia held their overnight cash rate, identifying softening economic growth as one of the factors. New Zealand’s labour costs rose, indicating
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